Feature image by Massachusetts Office of Travel - CC BY-ND 2.0
The BAA released the number of applicants for the 2026 Boston Marathon: 33,267. Here’s a revised prediction that takes this new data into account.
Registration for the 2026 Boston Marathon is this week – September 8 to September 12, 2025. The final qualifying race is the Jack & Jill Downhill Marathon Poconos on Friday, which has apparently renamed itself the Wicked Fast Marathon. After that, registration closes at 5PM ET.
It will likely be a couple of weeks before the acceptances and rejections go out, and in the meantime a lot of people are going to be asking the same questions – especially people who are applying to the Boston Marathon for the first time. So I’m going to collect some frequently asked questions and include answers below.
Here’s everything you need to know about the registration process itself, the potential cut-off time, and historical data about the Boston Marathon.
- What Is the Cutoff Time and How Is It Calculated?
- Is the cut Off Time Applied Equally to Each Age Group?
- What Has the Range of Cut Off Times Been Historically?
- What Has the Field Size Been Over the Years?
- How Many Applicants Will There Be This Year?
- What Will the Cut Off Time Be This Year?
- When Will BAA Announce the Cutoff Time?
- I See a Charge On My Credit Card. Am I Accepted?
- When Will the BAA Announce If Qualifying Times Are Changing?
- When Does the Qualification Period Start For the 2027 Boston Marathon?
What Is the Cutoff Time and How Is It Calculated?
The Boston Athletic Association establishes qualifying times to apply for the Boston Marathon. Years ago, if you met that qualifying time, you were guaranteed entry into the race. When the race first started filling up, this transitioned into a first come, first serve model.
But as demand for the race has increased, that first come first serve model was no longer sustainable. There are a limited number of spaces available in the race, and BAA has chosen to select the fastest runners in each age group to allocate bibs.
To this this, they first calculate the difference between each person’s finish time and their qualifying time.
For example, a 41 year old man has a qualifying time of 3:05:00. A finish time of 3:01:32 is 3:28 below that qualifying time. This is colloquially known as a qualifier’s buffer.
The goal of the cutoff time is to reduce the size of the applicant pool to the planned size of the field. If there are 24,000 spaces available for time qualifiers, they are looking for the point at which exactly 24,000 runners ran at least that much faster than their qualifying time.
Another way to think about this is to sort runners into buckets.
How many runners were at least ten minutes faster than their qualifying times? If that doesn’t fill up the field, move on to 9 minutes. Then 8, and so on, until you get a full field.
Is the Cutoff Time Applied Equally to Each Age Group?
Yes.
Although the individual qualifying times vary by age and gender, the cutoff time is applied in a standard way across the board.
If the cutoff time is 5 minutes, that means that every age group has 5 minutes deducted from its qualifying time. So a 34 year old man would have to run 2:50, a 45 year old woman would have to run 3:40, and a 67 year old man would have to run 4:00.
Is this fair? That’s a loaded question.
But it’s generally true that this system favors older runners. When you apply the same cutoff time to a broad range of qualifying times, it’s more meaningful for runners with the fastest qualifying times.
Consider the two extremes: a 30 year old man and an 80 year old woman.
The younger man’s qualifying time is 2:55, and 5 minutes represents a 2.86% improvement. The older woman’s qualifying time is 5:20, and 5 minutes represents a 1.56% improvement.
This is less of an issue when cutoff times are one to two minutes. But as cutoff times exceed five minutes – and then some – the issue becomes more glaring. I’ve analyzed this topic in more depth on Medium.
What Has the Range of Cutoff Times Been Historically?
Prior to 2012, there were no cutoff times. A limited was established, and once the field was full, registration closed. In 2011, those spots were gone in just eight hours, necessitating a chance to the qualifying process.
Since 2012, most years have had at least a small cutoff time. You can see the individual cutoff times below.
Three years had no cutoff time at all: 2013, 2022, and 2023.
2013 was the first year after a new set of qualifying times were implemented. 2022 and 2023 were in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic. Travel restrictions were still in place for the 2022 race, and qualifying times for the 2023 race needed to be run between 9/1/21 and 9/16/2022.
Four years had notably higher cutoff times: 2019, 2021, 2024, and 2025.
In 2019, there was a surge in qualified applicants and the cutoff time was nearly 5 minutes. That year, the Boston Marathon announced that it would reduce the qualifying times beginning in 2020. This brought the cutoff time back to a reasonable level the following year.
In 2021, the cutoff time was the highest it has ever been: 7:47. However, this was driven by a unique set of factors. The field size was severely limited as a result of the COVID pandemic and it had an extended qualifying period.
In 2024, there was once again a large cutoff time: 5:29. This was driven by the rebound in participation in marathons post-COVID. Since then, the number of runners and qualifiers has continued to increase, and that led to an even higher cutoff time in 2025.
What Has the Field Size Been Over the Years?
In recent years, the overall field size for the marathon has been capped at around 30,000 runners. Typically, 22,000 to 24,000 of these spots are reserved for time qualifiers.
The visual below shows the number of qualified runners (blue) and the number of other runners (purple) per year. In some cases, the numbers are rounded based on reported estimates if the BAA didn’t release complete data.
In 2012 and 2013, the total field size was slightly below 30,000. There were also fewer time qualifiers than there have been in recent years.
2014 is a huge outlier. This was the year following the terrorist attacks at the 2013 race. There was a surge in the number of runners who wanted to participate, including many runners who could not complete the race the year before. The only other year in the history of Boston with a similar number of entrants was the centennial race in 1996.
Since then, the overall field size has been fairly stable at around 30,000. They were planning to increase the field size to 31,500 for the 2020 race, but that event was ultimately canceled due to COVID. The first race post-COVID (2021) had a reduced field size due to the pandemic, but by 2023 and 2024, the field was back to 30,000.
Last year (2025), they did increase the field size again to 32,000. Other than 2014 and 1996, this is the biggest it has been in the history of the race. A key question is whether this will continue next year.
In terms of time qualifiers, that number has fluctuated between 22,000 and 24,000. After two years where this number was lower than usual, they raised it back to 24,000 last year. They’ve never admitted more than ~24,000 applicants based on qualifying times, so this number is unlikely to increase further.
Unless something unexpected happens, the field size will likely be ~32,000 with ~24,000 time qualifiers.
How Many Applicants Will There Be This Year?
The two key numbers in predicting the cutoff time are a) how many bibs are available for time qualifiers and b) how many qualified applicants apply. Other variables can influence the outcome in subtle ways, but if you know those two numbers you can be pretty confident about your prediction.
Assuming the number of available bibs remains constant, more applicants means a higher cutoff time. Fewer applicants means a lower cutoff time.
Last year, there were a record number of applicants – 36,393. This, combined with 24,069 available bibs, required the elimination of 12,324 qualified applicants. This resulted in a 6:51 cutoff time.
The year before that was also a record setting year. That year there were 33,058 applicants. Combined with 22,019 available bibs, this required the elimination of 11,039 applicants. This resulted in a cutoff time of 5:29.
The BAA typically releases the number of applicants the week after registration closes. Until then, the modeling that I’ve done suggests that we’ll see between 34,000 and 35,000 applicants.
Update: The BAA announced that there were 33,267 applicants for the 2026 Boston Marathon. That’s slightly lower than my projection but more than there were for the 2024 Boston Marathon.
What Will the Cutoff Time Be This Year?
It’s impossible to say for sure, and my confidence in the prediction will increase once the number of applicants is released, but an analysis of the available data suggests that the cutoff time will be between 5:30 and 6:00.
We know some things to be true. There are significantly more runners finishing marathons in this qualifying period than last period. At the same time, the new qualifying times has reduced the percent of finishers who qualify – resulting in a small (~6-7%) decrease in the number of Boston qualifiers.
We don’t know for certain how many bibs will be available for time qualifiers, but until we learn otherwise it’s safe to assume that number will remain constant at 24,000.
Throughout the year, I tracked these statistics with the Boston Marathon Cutoff Time Tracker. It assumes that the net difference in the number of qualifiers will carry over to the net difference in the number of applicants. That would result in about 34,000 qualified applicants and the need to eliminate about 10,000 runners.
We don’t know the actual distribution of buffers among those applicants, but the tracker makes the assumption that there are ~1,800 runners eliminated per minute. This would result in a cutoff time of about 5:36. This methodology works backwards from the total number of applicants to the cutoff time.
Last month, I developed another methodology to predict the cutoff time. By using data on the conversion rate of qualifiers for the 2024 Boston Marathon, I created a dashboard that applies weighting factors to individual qualifiers to determine how likely they are to apply. With this methodology, I can predict the expected number of applicants – and see how they’ll be distributed according to their buffers.
This methodology predicts just under 35,000 applicants. Based on the distribution of their buffer times, the field will reach 24,000 applicants at around 5:40. This methodology works opposite from the other one, counting up from an empty field and reducing the cutoff until the field is full.
Both methodologies converge on the same general outcome, so I think it’s likely that the actual cutoff time is between 5:30 and 6:00.
Update: Based on the number of applicants, a revised prediction of the cutoff time is between 5:00 and 5:30.
That being said, there are still some unknowns. Once we know the actual number of applicants, I’ll be more confident in that prediction – or know if it’s going to end up being significantly higher or lower.
In the meantime, I think it’s incredibly unlikely that the cutoff time ends up below 5:00. It’s also incredibly unlikely that it’ll be above 6:30. I’d peg those as the bounds of what is within the realm of possibility – absent a giant curveball (like altering the field size significantly).
When Will the BAA Announce the Cutoff Time?
Based on previous years, the general timeline goes like this:
- The registration period is open for a certain amount of time
- Following the registration period, BAA will verify all qualifying times
- Once verification is complete, they will send acceptances and rejections and announce the cutoff time
The registration period this year is September 8 to September 12. It closes Friday at 5pm.
In the past, it has taken one to two weeks to complete the verification process and announce the field. That could put things as late as September 26. Based on the last couple of years, the announcement will likely come in the middle of that week – September 24 or 25.
For it’s part, BAA has officially said that the process will be complete in early October. It hasn’t taken this long historically, but they’re likely hedging their bets so as not to anger people by taking longer than expected. Better to under promise and over deliver than the other way around.
Either way, settle in for a short wait.
I See a Charge On My Credit Card. Am I Accepted?
I’ve seen this question a lot on various running forums and social media communities.
As part of the registration process, you must submit a payment method. This payment method will be charged if and when you are accepted.
However, many runners have noticed that there is a charge visible in their online banking platform, and they then wonder if this is a sign that they’ve been accepted.
Unfortunately, that’s not what this means. Here’s a statement straight from the BAA website:
If your application is accepted, only then will your credit card be charged the non-refundable, non-transferable, and non-deferable entry fee. You may notice a preauthorization draft on your credit card statement. This authorization will be removed within seven to 10 business days. The actual charge will not appear on your credit card until your entry has been verified and accepted, and you’ve received a confirmation of acceptance email. The preauthorization does not constitute acceptance into the race. Only athletes who are accepted into the Boston Marathon will be charged the entry fee.
As BAA clearly states, a charge that you see immediately is just a pre-authorization. It will disappear, and it does not mean that you’ve been accepted. It’s totally normal, and many runners are seeing this.
The same holds true for when you see this pre-authorization hold disappear. That is not a sign that you’ve been rejected. It’s a normal thing that people will see during the week of 9/16.
You’ll know you’ve been accepted because you’ve gotten an acceptance email – and they’ll announce the cut-off time at the same time.
If you used a debit card, then the money has likely been deducted from your bank account. So you may perceive this to be a “charge” and not a “preauthorization.”
But this is just the way debit cards work. Similarly, if you use a debit card at a hotel, you’ll be charged the full amount for the hold and it will be refunded later.
When Will BAA Announce If Qualifying Times Are Changing?
Last year, there was widespread speculation that the qualifying times would be reduced for the 2026 Boston Marathon, and that turned out to be accurate. Back in the spring, I heard there was some chatter about possibly tightening the standards again, but I think it’s unlikely.
The BAA made two changes to registration for the 2027 Boston Marathon – the new downhill results index and the elimination of the double dipping period. Neither is likely to have a huge impact on the cutoff time, but they do give the impression that BAA is “doing something.” They’ll likely let things simmer for a year and revisit the qualifying times after the next qualifying period.
But if they do change the qualifying times, when would they announce that?
Most likely, they’ll announce it around the same time they announce the cutoff time for the 2026 race.
Last year, they announced the new qualifying standards on September 16, 2024. This came at the end of the registration period, and they combined it with the release of the number of applicants. This came a week before the actual cutoff time was announced.
The previous change took effect with the 2020 Boston Marathon. On September 27, 2018, BAA announced the cutoff time for the 2019 Boston Marathon. In that same press release, they announced the new qualifying times for 2020.
So any potential announcements regarding the qualifying times for the 2027 Boston Marathon will likely come in mid to late September.
When Does the Qualification Period Start For the 2027 Boston Marathon?
In recent years, there has been a double dipping period in early September.
For example, the qualifying period for the 2025 Boston Marathon was September 1, 2023 to September 13, 2024. The qualifying period for the 2026 Boston Marathon was September 1, 2024 to September 12, 2025.
If you ran a race between 9/1/2024 and 9/13/2024 – like the 2024 Erie Marathon at Presque Isle – you could use those results in either or both the 2025 and 2026 Boston Marathons.
But … that is no more. When BAA announced the new rules for downhill marathons, they also announced the beginning of the 2027 qualifying period – 9/13/2025. They did not release a specific date for when registration for the race would end, which would coincide with the end of the qualifying period.
There’s now a hard dividing line between the 2026 and 2027 Boston Marathon qualifying periods. If you ran an early September race in 2025, up through the Wicked Fast Marathon on 9/12/2025, you can only use those results for the 2026 race. But if you run the Saturday edition of that (9/13/2025), those results will only be good for the 2027 race.
This double dipping period was a recent phenomena. Prior to 2022, the qualifying period did not typically start on September 1. In some cases, there was a single weekend that spanned multiple qualifying periods, but that was it.
Do You Have Any Other Questions About the 2026 Boston Marathon Cutoff Time?
That’s a lot of information, and hopefully it answered any questions you might have. It’s most of what I’ve seen people asking online.
If you have any other questions, feel free to leave a comment below. I’ll answer it if I can, and I may revise this article to include your question.
In the meantime, sit tight and get ready to wait things out for a couple more weeks. Assuming your one of the thousands of runners who qualified for Boston, we’ll know soon enough whether we actually make it into this year’s race.
And if we don’t, there’s always next year. So keep running, and start planning for your next BQ attempt. Just plan to be a little faster.