Feature image by Steven Pisano, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Last week, I wrote up a quick analysis of the trends among the fastest finishing women throughout the history of the New York City Marathon. Today, I’m back to look at the history of fast times among men.
The gist of that post was that a) the number and percent of women finishing sub-3:00 has been increasing and b) there was a particularly large increase between 2023 and 2024. While there is a smaller long term trend, that particular increase may be in part due to the change in the way qualifying times were handled.
In looking at the men’s side of things, there are two questions that interest me.
- Is there a similar spike in fast times among men between 2023 and 2024?
- What has the long term trend looked like – going back to the 1980’s?
For now, I’m going to look at two specific finish times – 2:40 and 3:00. I chose 2:40 to be roughly in sync with the women’s sub-3:00 finish. And 3:00 (like sub-3:30 for women) represents a more attainable – but still quite fast – finish time.
Also, I’m going to focus specifically on men under 40. While some men in their 40’s will hit these times, that’s when age starts to take it’s toll. For the purposes of calculating what percentage of the field finishes under these times, limiting the age to under 40 helps keep things more consistent.
So let’s see what the data has to say.
Did More Men Finish Under 2:40 and 3:00 This Year?
The short answer: yes.
The visual below shows the number of men (the purple bar) under 40 who finished under 2:40 at this year’s New York City Marathon. The blue line represents the total number of men in that age group.
If you hover over the bar, you’ll also see the number represented as a percentage of that age group.
Ignore the left side of the graph for now, and just pay attention to the years after 2012. At its low point, less than 100 men finished sub-2:40 each year. This increased in 2018 and 2019, dipped post COVID, and started to increase again in 2023.
But from 2023 to 2024, the bar increases from 125 to 318. This is far more than double. It’s also an increase from 0.010% to 0.022% – so more than double in terms of a percentage, as well. Notice that the blue line increases – for the first time in a long time – but the number of men finishing sub-2:40 far outpaces that increases.
As a percentage of the field, you’d have to go back to 1983 to see a similar percentage of men under 40 finishing sub-2:40.
What about the lower bar – a sub-3:00 finish?
The pattern is similar – although the low point is back in 2003-04. But there’s a relative lull from 2013-15, an increase from 2017-2019, a dip post-COVID, and then a rebound.
Here, the increase from 2023 to 2024 is 855 to 1,333 – still sizeable, but closer to 50% than 150%. And as a percentage of the field, the increase is from 0.067% to 0.090%.
I’d say this supports my hypothesis that the increase of fast times is – in part – due to the way that NYRR started handling qualifying times with the 2024 race. Previously, times from non-NYRR races were handled on a first come first serve basis, and there was a relatively small pool. This year, they prioritized the fastest times, and a runner had to be ~18 minutes beneath their qualifying time to get in with a non-NYRR race.
So previously, men under 40 gaining entrance with a non-NYRR race would have been randomly distributed between 2:30 and 2:55 – with many runners using times in the 2:50’s. With the cutoff time, you’re now looking at a pool of runners who have posted at least a 2:40 in another race prior to running NYC.
The result? An outsized increase in the number of sub-2:40 finishes.
The Long Term Trend – The Number of Finishers
Now what if we look to the left of the graph – what’s been happening long term?
Before we talk about the times, one thing that I noticed was that the size of the field – specifically men under 40 – has been pretty stagnant. Since 1992, it’s hovered around 12,000 to 13,000. It’s a little higher from 2009 to 2019, but not by much. The last significant increase is from 1984 to 1991.
The numbers rebounded fully in 2023, but they increased by 15% from 2023 to 2024. The overall field has consistently increased from 1992 to today. But much of that increase came from a) women and b) men.
For comparison, here’s the graph from last week’s article about women at the New York City Marathon.
Starting in 1978, that blue line consistently shoots up. There’s a little dip from 2003 to 2007, but it shoots up again after that. You could more or less draw a straight line from 1978 to 2023.
There’s the same 15% increase from 2023 to 2024 here, too.
Moving forward, I wonder if this is signs of a surge in participation among younger runners that will ultimately lead to a larger field of marathoners over the next decade. Total participation in the United States peaked back in 2014, and it hasn’t increased beyond that point. But that might change this year or next.
The Long Term Trend – The Finish Times
When you look at the finish times, there’s a stark difference from the early 1980’s and the years that followed. For both men and women, the peak years were from 1981-1983. In both cases, the number of runners finishing sub-2:40/sub-3:00 fell by half overnight.
One possible answer is that runners were just faster back then. That’s the simpler, rosier answer, and one that some runners tend to cling to when they talk about the “good old days.”
Another answer is that people were playing dirty. When I posted my analysis of this year’s New York City Marathon I noted that Conner Mantz’ time was the fastest finish by an American since Alberto Salazar. Some people were quick to suggest that Salazar was guilty of doping.
There’s no direct evidence that Salazar or any of these other finishers from the early 1980’s were doping. But in 1986, the 2nd place finisher (Antoni Niemczak of Poland) did test positive for steroids. According to the New York Times, the drug testing in the 1986 NYC Marathon was the “country’s first drug testing in a non-Olympic Games marathon.’ Makes you wonder what things would look like if this drug testing had started back in 1981.
Another potential explanation could be the growth of the sport throughout the 1980’s – with more races offering more opportunities and diluting the pool of talented runners. This is a topic worthy of a closer look – but a quick glance at the ARRS list of marathons in 1983 doesn’t show a significant difference in the number and size of fall marathons between 1983 and 1984.
Regardless of the cause, there was a steep drop in the percentage of runners finishing sub-2:40/sub-3:00 from 1983 to 1984. For men, the rate this year is the highest that it’s been since 1984, and for women, it’s close.
What Does the Rest of the Fall Marathon Season Look Like?
The other half of this equation is what the rest of the fall marathons look like.
If there’s a selection effect going on, diverting more of these fast finishers to the New York City Marathon, that means that the number of runners finishing at these times in other fall marathons should be lower.
I’m just finishing up some data collection of fall races through Philly this past weekend in order to do an early analysis of the potential Boston cut-off time. But that data will also let me look at the larger trend of runners finishing at these times.
More on those two questions another day. If you’re interested in either of those questions, make sure you fill out the form below and sign up for the weekly newsletter.