Last week, I published an analysis of the new Boston Marathon qualifying times. That analysis quite clearly shows that the qualification rate – the percentage of runners in a given age group who run a qualifying time – increases with age. A few age groups in particular – 45-49, 60-64, and 65-69 – had disproportionately … Read more
There’s an old saying that if you want to qualify for Boston, you don’t have to get faster. Just get older. When I analyzed the qualifying times last year, I found that to be generally true. The qualification rate – the percent of runners in a given age group who meet their qualifying time for … Read more
Since the fall, I’ve been collecting data to project the cutoff time for the 2026 Boston Marathon. I’ve put together a Tableau dashboard to help you explore the data in real time, which you can play with here. While that tracker is updated on a weekly basis, I take a step back from time to … Read more
An updated tracker, focused on the 2027 Boston Marathon cutoff time, is now live.The BAA announced the cutoff time for 2026 would be 4:34. Here’s a reflection on their announcement, along with my latest prediction and my original prediction. The Tableau dashboard below collects data from marathons, tracks the number of finishers who meet their … Read more
This year, there were a record number of qualifiers who applied to run the Boston Marathon. That led to a steep cutoff time of 6:51 for the 2025 race and new qualifying times for the 2026 race and beyond. A lot of people, myself included, hoped that would bring the cutoff time for future races … Read more
Last month, I posted a lengthy analysis of the Chicago Marathon results. Part of that analysis was whether runners managed a negative split or not. Subsequently, I’ve done some more thinking about this issue. After some discussions around the data, I came up with a different way to think about the problem. Instead of looking … Read more
Many runners have strong opinions about Boston’s qualifying times and their selection process. People will inevitably complain that it’s unfair for one group or another. I recently saw a post in a Facebook group suggesting that the process was unfair for women – and that the new qualifying times would make things more unfair. This … Read more
This week, the Boston Athletic Association officially announced the cutoff time for the 2025 Boston Marathon: 6:51. As they have done in the past, they included with this announcement a collection of data and statistics that tell some of the story of the applicant pool and the field of qualifiers. Absent a full release of … Read more
Note: this article deals with the 2025 Boston Marathon. For the current prediction for the 2026 Boston Marathon, see this article. Friday, the registration period for the 2025 Boston Marathon came to a close. Along with many others, I was eagerly waiting to see if they would release the number of qualified applicants. They didn’t. … Read more
Registration for the 2025 Boston Marathon is drawing to a close, and over the past week I’ve seen a lot of the same questions come up over and over again. It will still be another week or two before acceptances and rejections go out, and it’s likely these same questions will continue to circulate. So … Read more