For the past nine months, I’ve tracked data about the number of finishers and qualifiers at marathons around the world to project the likely cutoff time for the 2026 Boston Marathon. With the qualifying period winding down, that projection has stabilized around 5:30. A common – and fair – critique of the methodology behind this … Read more
Feature photo by Ania Mendrek on Flickr – CC BY-ND 2.0. When I first attempted to predict the cutoff time for the 2025 Boston Marathon, I focused on calculating the difference in the number of qualifiers year-over-year. Although not all qualifiers will end up applying to Boston, I started with the assumption that there is … Read more
This week, the Boston Athletic Association dropped a bombshell of an announcement – that qualifying times from downhill marathons will be subject to an adjustment starting with the 2027 Boston Marathon. As the competition to get into Boston has become more intense, runners’ feelings about downhill marathons have become equally intense. Steep downhill races – … Read more
Last week, I wrote up a summary and analysis of John Korir’s training for the 2025 Boston Marathon. He has a public Strava profile, so it’s all out there for someone with the patience to comb through it. One thing that I wasn’t able to see previously, though, was the details of his Tuesday workouts. … Read more
In November, I launched the Boston Marathon Cutoff Time Tracker to project the expected cutoff for the 2026 Boston Marathon. Since then, I’ve made regularly updates to incorporate additional race results as they become available. For those of you that are interested in making your own prediction and who are technically savvy, I’ve cleaned up … Read more
John Korir has had one hell of a year. He won the 2024 Chicago Marathon, and then he turned around and won the 2025 Boston Marathon. For someone who previously won LA in 2:09-2:12, ran Boston in 2:10, and ran Chicago in 2:05, it’s a big come up. From 2021-23, he was good. But in … Read more
The 2026 Boston Marathon registration period likely open on September 8, 2025. That means the weekend of September 6-7 will be your last opportunity to run a qualifying time if you’re hoping to run the 2026 race. The Boston Marathon Cutoff Time Tracker is currently projecting a cutoff time of 5:46, and when the dust … Read more
Feature photo courtesy of erp3d on reddit A question I frequently get asked is, “How accurate was the Boston Marathon Cutoff Time Tracker in the past?” It’s impossible to answer that question directly, because the tracker itself is new this year. This is the first time that I’ve collected the results and made a continuing … Read more
My last major update on the Boston Marathon cutoff time projection came at the end of March. The projection was 5:20, and things had been moderating slightly for several weeks. But as I said then, April could prove to be an impactful month, with results from both Boston and London, along with many other races. And April did … Read more
Feature image by dorestbays on Flickr – CC BY-SA 2.0 Last month, I published an analysis of the impact of downhill marathons on the Boston Marathon qualifying process. As a reminder, here are a few of the conclusions I came to: That analysis was published before the 2025 Boston Marathon. I used the entry list … Read more